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Davis Cup Finals preview and greatest bets

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Andy Schooler’s followers have already got this week’s Davis Cup Finals favorites on aspect at 33/1. Now he is added a 20/1 suggestion for the final week of the 2022 season.

Tennis betting ideas: Davis Cup Finals

0.5pt ew Netherlands to win the Davis Cup at 20/1 (bet365, William Hill, 1/3 1,2)

1pt Netherlands and Croatia each to win their quarter-finals at 3.03/1 (bet365, William Hill)

Already suggested:

0.5pt new Canada to win the Davis Cup at 33/1 (Sky Guess 1/2 1,2)

Sky Guess odds | Paddy energy | Betfair Sportsbook

Davis Cup Finals – Knockout stage

  • Malaga, Spain (indoor onerous)

The final week of the 2022 tennis season will see the very best workforce in males’s tennis determined on the Davis Cup Finals.

After a sequence of qualifiers early within the yr and the Finals group stage in September, we’re right down to the ultimate eight and the champions will now be determined through a knockout format from Tuesday to Sunday in Malaga.

The draw ‘bracket’ is already identified with Australia, Netherlands, Croatia and Spain within the high half, and Italy, USA, Germany and Canada within the backside half.

It is price noting that these within the high half look to have a bonus by way of the schedule – they are going to get a day without work earlier than each their semi-final and last, whereas the groups within the backside part should play the semis and last on consecutive days.

There isn’t any clear favourite with the highest 5 out there all priced between 100/30 and 5/1.

One issue which we have to attempt to use to separate the edges is the courtroom situations.

Greenset is once more the floor – it was used within the group stage when there was loads of criticism of the courts being too sluggish.

It might seem organizers have listened to that criticism with early indications suggesting the pace has elevated.

Spanish captain Sergi Bruguera stated on Sunday: “(The courtroom) may be very quick and it would not profit us. If the massive servers are good, they’ve a terrific benefit that may be key.”

His German counterpart Michael Kohlmann added: “The courtroom is a bit sooner than in Hamburg, which fits us as a workforce. Total, particularly reasonable situations for all groups.”

One would suspect Bruguera is barely overstating issues – the Spanish would a lot favor a slower floor – nevertheless it additionally appears clear this isn’t the pudding courtroom we noticed within the group stage.

Anyway with these feedback taken on board, let’s check out the quarter-finals after which come to some kind of conclusion over who may be lifting the trophy come Sunday.

Australia v Netherlands (Tuesday, 1500 GMT)

  • Australia – Alex de Minaur, Thanasi Kokkinakis, Matt Ebden, Max Purcell
  • Netherlands – Botic van de Zandschulp, Tallon Griekspoor, Tim van Rijthoven, Wesley Koolhof, Matwe Middelkoop

The Dutch may very well be a contact of worth right here at 6/4.

They had been arguably probably the most spectacular workforce of the group stage, surprisingly successful the group held in Glasgow with a 100% file, seeing off USA and eliminating Nice Britain within the course of.

Botic van de Zandschulp went 3-0, extending his successful run within the competitors to 5, whereas world quantity 96 Tallon Griekspoor raised his sport to go 2-1.

Additionally they have a robust doubles workforce in Wesley Koolhof – the present joint world primary – and Matwe Middelkoop.

Australia look a little bit gentle with Nick Kyrgios, who would stroll into this workforce in each singles and doubles, not concerned.

That leaves so much resting on the shoulders of Alex de Minaur, with their quantity two singles participant now Thanasi Kokkinakis, who is just simply ranked inside the highest 100.

Kokkinakis has simply competed on the ATP Finals (with Kyrgios) in doubles however considerably unusually he appears unlikely to play in that format this week with captain Lleyton Hewitt having opted to make use of Matt Ebden and Max Purcell within the group stage. They did win two out of three, although.

The sooner courtroom ought to help the Aussies extra however, on the costs, the Dutch nonetheless look the higher wager.

Croatia v Spain (Wednesday, 1500 GMT)

  • Croatia – Marin Cilic, Borna Coric, Borna Gojo, Mate Pavic, Nikola Mektic
  • Spain – Pablo Carreno Busta, Roberto Bautista Agut, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Marcel Granollers, Pedro Martinez

The world’s high two singles gamers are at present Spanish however, sadly for the nation’s Davis Cup hopes, neither Carlos Alcaraz nor Rafael Nadal can be in Malaga this week.

They nonetheless have two of the world’s high 21 of their line-up however they’re most likely rightly the underdogs now.

In Marin Cilic and Borna Coric, Croatia boast two of the world’s high 26 and, as captain Bruguera has identified, the courtroom situations are more likely to favor their sport extra.

Cilic made the ultimate indoors in Tel Aviv a few months in the past, whereas Coric confirmed some good kind on the autumn indoor circuit, reaching the semis in Vienna the place he beat each Stefanos Tsitsipas and Hubert Hurkacz.

It is also vital to notice that Cilic leads his seemingly opponent, Pablo Carreno Busta, 4-1 on the head-to-head, whereas Coric has gained the final three towards Roberto Bautista Agut, the latest assembly seeing him file a dominant 6- 2 6-3 victory on a slick courtroom in Cincinnati.

Croatia might get this wrapped up within the singles however even when they do not they appear favorites to win the doubles with Nikola Mektic and Mate Pavic one of many high doubles groups on the earth. Certainly, they arrive off the again of a runners-up exhibiting on the ATP Finals in Turin.

In brief, Croatia can win this and, at 8/11, will definitely have their backers to take action.

Italy v USA (Thursday, 0900 GMT)

  • Italy – Lorenzo Musetti, Lorenzo Sonego, Fabio Fognini, Simone Bolelli
  • USA – Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe, Tommy Paul, Jack Sock

Italy posted the very best file within the group stage, successful seven of their 9 rubbers as they topped their pool, however that was with Jannik Sinner and Matteo Berrettini within the workforce.

Each at the moment are injured and lacking from the line-up.

Power in depth is one thing Italy do possess today however Lorenzo Musetti is not at his greatest on a quick courtroom – as evidenced on the latest Subsequent Gen ATP Finals in Milan the place the ante-post favourite exited within the group stage.

Given Italy’s absentees, the USA workforce now appears to be like the stronger of the 2.

They boast two of the world’s high 20 with Taylor Fritz a person in kind having simply reached the semis of the ATP Finals the place he pushed eventual champion Novak Djokovic shut.

There’s the plain concern about how he’ll again up after a tricky week in Turin however that is one final effort for the yr and also you’d think about Fritz can be prepared for a last push.

US Open semi-finalist Frances Tiafoe is a robust second singles participant, whereas Tommy Paul is in reserve and isn’t any mug if required.

Fritz crushed Musetti at Wimbledon in straight units, whereas Tiafoe defeated Sonego in Paris solely final month.

One weak spot in comparison with the group stage is the absence of Rajeev Ram. The world quantity three shaped a specialist doubles workforce with Jack Sock, with the latter now having to workforce up with one of many singles crew.

Italy’s doubles pair of Fabio Fognini and Simone Bolelli have gained a Grand Slam title collectively prior to now so they may have the sting if the tie remains to be reside at that time.

This needs to be fairly aggressive however I might count on the US – 1/3 for the win – to emerge victorious.

Germany v Canada (Thursday, not earlier than 1500 GMT)

  • Germany – Oscar Otte, Jan-Lennard Struff, Yannick Hanfmann, Tim Puetz, Kevin Krawietz
  • Canada – Felix Auger-Aliassime, Denis Shapovalov, Vasek Pospisil, Alexis Galarneau, Gabriel Diallo

Canada begin the week as match favorites, simply, however that is no gimme.

Felix Auger-Aliassime and Denis Shapovalov are two sturdy singles gamers and each ought to benefit from the situations if the courtroom is certainly significantly faster than it was within the group stage.

Auger-Aliassime is arriving from Turin the place he exited within the group stage, though he has racked up a variety of indoor wins prior to now couple of months, together with his serve proving a very potent weapon.

Shapovalov has additionally completed the yr strongly, though he is had hassle towards seemingly singles opponent Jan-Lennard Struff prior to now. He trails 5-3 general.

Captain Frank Dancevic would have been joyful to see Vasek Pospisil win the Drummondville Challenger on the weekend.

Pospisil may very well be a key man in doubles the place he is more likely to play alongside Shapovalov – the pair produced some vital wins throughout Canada’s run to the 2019 Davis Cup last.

Canada will most likely wish to get issues accomplished earlier than the doubles on this tie as Germany’s pair of Tim Puetz and Kevin Krawietz is a robust one.

With Alex Zverev nonetheless injured, Struff and Oscar Otte will play singles and they are going to be buoyed by a robust effort within the group stage once they helped Germany end high of a robust group.

At 3/1, the Germans shouldn’t be dominated out however they do search for towards it right here and whereas the highway won’t be completely clean for Canada, I do count on them to prevail.

Total verdict

So, as you’ll be able to inform, I’ve acquired the semi-finals being Netherlands v Croatia and USA v Canada.

These ties would seemingly have Croatia and Canada because the favourites.

The excellent news is that common readers might effectively have Canada already on the betslip at 33/1 – we put them up at that value previous to the group stage in September once they had been with out Denis Shapovalov.

With Shapo again within the fold, he and Felix Auger-Aliassime look a robust workforce, whereas Shapovalov and Vasek Pospisil will supply loads of menace in any reside doubles rubbers.

They’re most likely worthy favorites now however it may be aggressive this week and one dangerous particular person efficiency might show deadly to a workforce’s probabilities.

I subsequently do not feel there’s a lot worth in Canada’s value of 100/30 and positively if you happen to’ve acquired them at 33s, I might counsel simply seeing that one out.

Croatia are second favorites at 7/2 however Marin Cilic has by no means been probably the most dependable participant and he arrives right here on the again of three straight losses.

Born Coric additionally blows cold and hot. If he is on an excellent week, he may lead his nation to the title however do I wish to again them at 7/2? No.

I subsequently make the NETHERLANDS the worth shout at current. They’re beginning the week at 20/1.

They had been very spectacular within the group stage and appeared to have an actual workforce spirit which made them better than the sum of their components.

It is price noting that Tim van Rijthoven is their supposed ‘third man’ for singles but when the courts are certainly very fast, he could be an excellent man to usher in forward of Tallon Griekspoor.

Two doubles specialists may even guarantee they’re in with an excellent shout in any ties that go the gap.

Quarter-final opponents Australia look one of many weaker groups in Malaga and if the Dutch come by means of that they’re going to meet both Croatia or Spain, neither of whom look bombproof. Removed from it, the truth is.

Mainly we’re wanting the Dutch to win two ties to land the each-way a part of the wager – it is a third of the chances for a spot within the last, so that you’re getting shut to six/1 about them taking part in within the title match.

That appears price a small punt, whereas we’ll hold fingers crossed that Canada can ship that long-term wager too.

Wanting on the quarter-final ties, the Netherland do look a pleasant value at 6/4 to see off Australia and Croatia at 8/11 are additionally of curiosity to take down hosts Spain.

I am joyful to place these two in a double which pays simply over 3/1.

For these looking for a spot of worth, I do not suppose Germany needs to be as huge as 7/2 to beat Canada so that they may very well be price a nibble however let’s hope Canada ship us into Christmas on a big-priced winner.

Revealed at 1500 GMT on 21/11/22

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